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The Larkinor Quest
TA Progress Update
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13
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Most recent reply posted by:
poof masta floof
(May 11, 2010 9:49 PM)
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SandyT
Posts: 1,711
Registered: Feb, 2005
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TA Progress Update
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Posted:
Dec 5, 2007 9:13 PM
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I got a kick out of re-reading these estimates of how long it'll take to clear TA:
10 years
6-7 years
a couple years to clear a path between cities
I just did a bunch of math. (No honestly, I actually did. Hard to believe, but true.) While there are various ways of calculating this, these are the numbers I went with based on the LarkinorGuide.com information:
TOTAL NUMBER OF TA MONSTERS
81 x 120k (TA has 82 blocks, 81 excluding the lake, most had 120k monsters)
+ 5 x 30k (5 blocks had an extra 30k)
- 60k (one block had 60k less)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 9,810,000 (monsters on TA to start with)
TA MONSTERS KILLED
32 x 120k (33 blocks completely cleared, 32 excluding the lake, most had 120k monsters)
+ 5 x 30k (5 blocks had an extra 30k)
- 60k (one block had 60k less)
+ 215,588 (cleared from partially cleared blocks)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 4,145,588 (monsters cleared so far)
TOTALS
9,810,000 (monsters on TA to start with)
- 4,145,588 (monsters cleared so far)
-------------------------------------------------
= 5,664,412 monsters remaining
As a percentage, that's 42.3% cleared or 57.7% remaning, if you prefer. We've been at this since June 15, 2005... which is pretty much 2.5 years. If we continue at this pace, TA will be clear in 3.4 more years... May 2011.
Oh god, why did I do that? When I started, I figured we were close to half way done. That's my excuse. Sorry, but I just had to post it after working on it for 15 minutes.
Sandy
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Re: TA Progress Update
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Posted:
Dec 5, 2007 11:34 PM
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i'll admit, i wasn't sailing the waters when TA first opened... but i was under the impression that only the three ports had 30k more monsters (not 5), and i wasn't aware of any that had 60k less. now, if i'm right on both of those, your numbers are still valid. however, the hungarian island of TA has a 3-square lake, so i'm guessing we've probably got two more that we'll soon unearth.
--jason
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Re: TA Progress Update
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Posted:
Dec 6, 2007 2:10 PM
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My, my Sandy you have been busy with your maths. Any chance of helping my children with their algebra homework?
It's taken 2 1/2 years to get this far on TA but as more and more players level up hopefuly we can get it done in half the time. Over to Sandy to tell us how long that is.
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SandyT
Posts: 1,711
Registered: Feb, 2005
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Re: TA Progress Update
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Posted:
Aug 12, 2008 2:22 PM
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TOTAL NUMBER OF TA MONSTERS
81 x 120k (TA has 83 blocks, 81 excluding the two revealed lake blocks, most had 120k monsters)
+ 6 x 30k (6 blocks had 30k extra)
- 60k (one block had 60k less)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 9,840,000 (monsters on TA to start with)
TA MONSTERS KILLED
41 x 120k (41 blocks completely cleared, 39 excluding the two lake blocks, most had 120k monsters)
+ 6 x 30k (6 blocks had 30k extra)
- 60k (one block had 60k less)
+ 341,333 (cleared from partially cleared blocks)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 5,381,333 (monsters cleared so far)
TOTALS
9,840,000 (monsters on TA to start with)
- 5,381,333 (monsters cleared so far)
-------------------------------------------------
= 4,458,667 (monsters remaining)
As a percentage, that's 54.7% cleared, or 45.3% remaining. We've been at this for 1154 days now, which means we're clearing 4663 monsters per day. If we continue at this pace, TA will be clear in 956 more days, which is March 26, 2011.
The good news: this date is two months earlier than my previous estimate, we're past half way, and there is probably one more lake block.
Sandy
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Re: TA Progress Update
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Posted:
Aug 13, 2008 11:48 AM
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sorry sandy... checking your math again. why did you use the number excluding lakes when calculating total monsters on TA, but then you used the number including lake squares when counting cleared monsters?
also, i wasn't aware of a square with 60k less monsters. which one was that?
and for the record... 6 that had 30k extra monsters. were those the 3 port squares, 2 city centre squares (two in the south? or one north one south each with the fortress?), and the one we're currently clearing on the east coast?
--jason
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SandyT
Posts: 1,711
Registered: Feb, 2005
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Re: TA Progress Update
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Posted:
Aug 13, 2008 3:04 PM
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> why did you use the number excluding lakes when calculating total monsters on TA, but then you used the number including lake squares when counting cleared monsters?
Ooops! Missed that. So we've cleared 240k fewer monsters than I indicated above... which adds 51 days to my estimate. This puts the "TA Cleared Date" back to May 9, 2011, as in the very first post in this thread. Heck.
> i wasn't aware of a square with 60k less monsters. which one was that?
The West port.
> 6 that had 30k extra monsters. were those the 3 port squares, 2 city centre squares (two in the south? or one north one south each with the fortress?), and the one we're currently clearing on the east coast?
The north port and south port both had 150k. The eastern block we're working on definitely has 150k. The other three (according to LarkinorGuide.com - which is what I am relying on since my memory fails me in this regard) are the two CC blocks in the south, and the block between the west port and the market... which is a little odd.
I remember using old forum posts to research this last time I decided to count it all up. It's too late to do that research now as posts from the beginning of TA have been pruned since only 3000 threads are saved by this forum software.
Here is my original attempt to correctly populate the new Islands Map section of my site:
http://forum. flyordie.com/thread.jsp?forum=13&thread=23825
This inconclusively suggests that the southern-most CC block only had 120k:
http://forum. flyordie.com/thread.jsp?forum=13&thread=23181
Sandy
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will day
Posts: 293
Registered: Apr, 2005
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Re: TA Progress Update
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Posted:
Nov 25, 2008 7:39 PM
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facy updating our progress now? 
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Re: TA Progress Update
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Posted:
Nov 26, 2008 1:18 AM
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TOTAL NUMBER OF TA MONSTERS
81 x 120k (TA has 83 blocks, 81 excluding the two revealed lake blocks, most had 120k monsters)
+ 6 x 30k (6 blocks had 30k extra)
+ 1 x180k (1 block had 180k extra)
+ 2 x380k (2 blocks had 380k extra)
- 60k (one block had 60k less)
= 10,780,000 (monsters on TA to start with)
TA MONSTERS KILLED
42 x 120k (42 blocks completely cleared, 39 excluding the two lake blocks, most had 120k monsters)
+ 6 x 30k (6 blocks had 30k extra)
+ 1 x180k (1 block had 180k extra)
+ 309,492 monsters killed on unfinished blocks
- 60k (one block had 60k less)
= 5,649,492 (monsters cleared so far)
TOTALS
10,780,000 (monsters on TA to start with)
- 5,649,492 (monsters cleared so far)
= 5,130,508 (monsters remaining)
so to sum up, since the last update we have killed over 300k monsters so well done all. shame we have discovered an additional 940k on top of what we were expecting.
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Re: TA Progress Update
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Posted:
Nov 26, 2008 1:25 AM
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As a percentage, that's 52.4% cleared, or 47.6% remaining. We've been at this for 1269 days now, which means we're clearing 4452 monsters per day. If we continue at this pace, TA will be clear in 1152 more days, which is January 21, 2012.
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TylerUK
Posts: 395
Registered: Jan, 2008
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Re: TA Progress Update
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Posted:
Nov 26, 2008 3:13 AM
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> January 21, 2012.
I hope we get it cleared by December!
Tyler
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SandyT
Posts: 1,711
Registered: Feb, 2005
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Re: TA Progress Update
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Posted:
Nov 20, 2009 5:18 PM
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It's been a year now. Does anyone care to update the calculation?
Sandy
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zmr08
Posts: 15
Registered: Jul, 2008
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Re: TA Progress Update
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Posted:
Nov 21, 2009 3:58 PM
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it seems hard to make a calculation with monster numbers. if number of cleared and noncleared blocks are considered;
TA has 83 blocks, 3 of them are lake, 80 blocks excluding lake. 51 blocks cleared so far. 29 blocks non cleared yet.
it can be said that 64% of the blocks have been cleared till now. 36% of the blocks not cleaned.
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Re: TA Progress Update
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Posted:
May 11, 2010 9:49 PM
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TOTAL NUMBER OF TA MONSTERS
80 x 120k (TA has 83 blocks, 80 excluding the three revealed lake blocks, most had 120k monsters)
+ 180k (1 block had 180k extra)
+ 2 x 380k (2 blocks had 360k extra)
+ 6 x 30k (6 blocks had 30k extra)
- 60k (one block had 60k less)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 10,660,000 (monsters on TA to start with)
TA MONSTERS KILLED
53 x 120k (53 blocks completely cleared, 50 excluding the three lake blocks, most had 120k monsters)
+ 6 x 30k (6 blocks had 30k extra)
+ 180k (1 block had 180k extra)
+ 199,800 (cleared from partially cleared blocks)
- 60k (one block had 60k less)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 6,859,800 (monsters cleared so far)
TOTALS
10,660,000 (monsters on TA to start with)
- 6,859,800 (monsters cleared so far)
-------------------------------------------------
= 3,800,200 (monsters remaining)
Now we have to add 1080-1440 per day, based upon Sandy's invasion research. That would be 394,200-525,600 per year. I'm too lazy to find the rate (derivative?) at which it is increasing. But anyways the total monsters remaining increases every year by that much.
It has been 471 days since the invasions started, which is about 508,680 - 678,240 invaders killed
The conclusion - It will take a lot more than what we've been giving these past months, which will soon result in a longer time until we're done, which is very sad. The good news is that it is almost summer and the trends say that more people come back/play over summer.
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