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DICE manipulation
Posted in 
Backgammon
DICE manipulation
Posted in 
Backgammon
DICE manipulation

I would like to know why they dont allow us to play free, and they control the dice roll.. 
I fully agree with the comment, and don´t understand either...
Only been using the site a few months, been up to a ranking of 300 plus a few times, but each time I do I know now that my ranking will plummet back down to close to zero no matter how I play, no matter who I play against.

Got to the point where it's beyond laughable to predictably tiresome.

Only reason I continue to keep coming back is that afte playing on here, when you play elsewhere it's like having a huge handicap lifted and it tends to raise your game.
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I do very much agree: But I think we have to be more specific on the critic! - I have made a thread recently where I am makin´some calculations on the matter. 6-6 f.ex. and the amount of odd dices with less than 1% possibility to happen. In my mind there is no question, that the dices are manipulated and the randomisation stinks!  ... 

The more 6-6 (and odd dices) - the more strange games with random winners - the more the weaker players will winn - the more encouraged they will be - the more players will garther - the more commercials the siteowners will sell!!! 

But I would like a game with real ramdomisation! Or else I cannot calculate... And so the game will be of no interest! What about you guys?
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The dice appear to be getting worse.  Three doubles in a row is now common.
The program follows the moves, how many times does 6/1 come up when the 7 point has a single on?, if you play the percentage move then you may be ok but if you look at the next throw you would have been hit if you hadn't, it would be so good to have dice you trusted, we all know that they are cruel mistresses but these are twisted as well.
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And 3 doubles is: 1/36^3*6 = 0,00128 = app. 1 out of 1000. f there is app. 25 throwes for each player in a game (it´s high!) - it is 1/20 of all games, you will sea triple. If it happens every 10 games it is the 100% more, than expected!! ... And that´s is what we are talkin´about! Shit randomisation... Cheat is what it is!
 
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If you think that getting three doubles in a row has a probability of  0,00128 then it is no wonder that you feel that 3 doubles are coming too frequent.

(hint: the probability of getting three doubles in a row is much higher)

Thank you.
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Well, well, well: So there is in fact somebody with contact to the owners of this site at the end of this conversation! Very interesting: - I will like to express my thankfullness for your contribution, my friend!

Nevertheless: If your statement shall have some impact on me, I`m afraid I have to see it proven... Or else I would not know if you´re just another fool - right?.. I myself is no mathproffessor: But I have written 2 or 3 books about BG (ex: Paul Lampford: Improve your Backgammon) and I´m familiar to the sample space of 2 dices. I would very much like to watch you do the math ... So go on my friend! 

Regards 

Backgammondude 
... No answer is also an answer....
So sad: But really no wonder!! ... 

If there is someone clever at the other side of this curtain: Please come on out in the clear sun to tell us fools, how a real BGshark is doing the math... or else it will have no impact on us: - whether you tell us, the moon is made of green cheese or you tell us it is rather common to get a double 3 times in a row!!
On any turn, the probability of rolling a double is 6/36 = 1/6. Each roll of the dice is independent.

So the probability that any given turn will result in the rolling of doubles three times in a row is (1/6) x (1/6) x (1/6) = 1/216. This is approximately 0.46%.

Which is roughly 3.5 times as frequent as your mentioned 0.128%.

I hope this answers your questions.
Thanks for your participation, mister "Flyordie"

I had both a subject and aim by writing. Fist of all you misunderstood the subject. The aim we can discuss later, when we have solved the math conclusion: Hope that´s all right?

You right in: The sample space is 36. Therefore the probability of getting a double is 6/36 in that there is 6 different doubles: 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, 5-5, 6-6.

You´re subject was: The probability of getting 3 RANDOM doubles in a row: 

This is like you quoted: 1/6*1/6*1/6 = 1/216 =appr: 0,5% 
ex: 2-2, 3-3, 5-5 or 1-1, 2-2, 1-1 

My subject was: The probability of getting 3 OF THE SAME doubles in a row: 

This is like I quoted: 1/6*1/36*1/36=1/7776= appr: 0,01%
ex: 1-1, 1-1, 1-1 or 2-2, 2-2, 2-2

1/6 because the fist doble can be any double
1/36 because after "choosen" a double the next shall be the same... and the next again the same

Let´s have an aggrement on this first of all, can we?

Yours BGdude
No, you were talking about:
"And 3 doubles is: 1/36^3*6 = 0,00128 = app. "

you have not mentioned you were talking about three same doubles.

OK, now we have the probabilities. Now it's just about time you show some evidence of your accusations. Show me that three same doubles happen more frequently than it is expected, please. If it happens so frequently, it would not be too hard to prove it, would it.

Thank you.
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Sure I will: If you let my have access to my last 256 games I will show you, that 3 times in a row of the same double has happened not 1 time - but 3-5 times in that period of games (should be one time out af 256 games, if a game is about approx. 30 throwes with a dice).

The reason is - I think- , that there is a lot more doubles on this site than the statistic amount of 1/6. I haven´t done counting on that issue lately, but did so 1-2 years ago where I examined the amonunt of 6-6 over 2 times 2000 throwes. -And found out, that in both observations the amount was more than the double = 2/36 - 4/36 ... Specially in situations closed out there seemed to be a significant difference. 

But one thing at a time: Let`s start the proces allowing me to have acces to the last 256 games, I have played and let´s se what statistics we can make out of this... 7776 throwes should be enough to apply to the "law of big numbers"...


Yours BGdude
You are right about not making my subject (3 of the same doubles in a row) clear... I apologize for that!!

But now we have the same understanding....
"7776 throwes should be enough to apply to the "law of big numbers" "

I am afraid that I have to disagree.
Having a 1/7776 probability does not mean that it will happen exactly once in any 7776 throws. 
You´re completely right. Especially when we are talking about very rare insidents...  It will give anything between 0 and 2 positive observations. But: If I do the observation twice and it happens to end up with ex. 2-3 times in both observationset I have to say something is damn rotten...

But ok: It´s a bit easyer to examin the amount of 6-6. So if we agree on that it´ll be so.... 
But I guess the discussion have ended here? - Maybe the owners won´t allow me to examin my games? Maybe they will have to look into, how they are able to manage to manipulate the games with triple doubles? - Get rid of them somehow? 

Meanwhile I think I´ll do another study on 6-6: How often it happens, how many times in a locked out position....

Remember: This site haven´t promissed anybody, that the randomisation here is worked out on the basis of a real randomisation of two dices.... They can do like they want with the randomisation: And they do!! 

I think: 1) In order to raise the amount of players on the site, so that 2) they can get better deals with there commercial contracts and 3) earn more money....
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Isn´t there anybody out there looking for a reason for, why this conversation have ended?
" the owners won´t allow me to examin my games? "

the owners do allow you to examine your games.

Wonderfull!! - Thank you: How should I do then to access my last 256 games?
I am pretty sure you can find a way to record and analyze your games, if you really want to.
But let´s be honest: You will not - or the owners will not - allow be to see and analyse my last 200-300 games... 

And you are of course aware, that giving me the last 200-300 games to evaluate COULD mean that all speculations about this site cheating with the randomisation would be silenced? 

Knowing this and at the same time declare, that the randomisation - of course - are not fixed - is the same for me like saying: Of course you are right, BGdude: We are cheating like hell .... 

And so be it!! Now we know what we are talkin´bout, right?

  
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May I ask what prevents you from recording your games, or make a fb live stream of all of your games, so you can easily prove your accusations?

Seems you are quite aware that you are simply wrong, and you have nothing to prove.

End of discussion from my part until you come up with some real evidence.

Thank you for your understanding.

You want discuss any further: And it´s all right with me... 

I´ll think about using fb stream... haven´t done something like it before, but... 

I think I´ll concentrate on making as much studies of the amount of 6-6 as I can. That´s the highway to sertenty .. You will hear from this of course: And yes - I´m completely sure the randomisation hear is completely fake, and that the image of 2 dices in the screenplay is giving a totally false opinion! 

But obvius: Nobody here gives a damn! They just play to bore there time away and doesn´t seem to be interested in calculation at all.... To me it´s the fun thing about playing BG: So maybe I should instead find another site to play...With not quit so many times 6-6 in situations locked out!!

Over and out from here too 


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I don't understand how those in control of these games on flyordie allow cheating.  I like playing, but the cheating is so ridicules its a shame. When you stay on the bar for seven or more rolls, you know the dice is not rolling free.  They allow dice programing, why it is suppose to be a game for people to relax their mind, when their day has been difficult.  I have mentioned this but no results.  
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Totally agree...it is just ridiculous. You can be playing a random player who doesn't know how to play. I have five of six blocks, other player gets back on after one roll every time. Other play has blocks only on 6 so I roll three 6s in a row. Lost virtually every game two days straight. Sure that would change if i subscribed but not going to...advertisers pay good money...FOD just being greedy!
Thanks for your review: It´s strange to see, that nobody seems to be interested in the randomisation on this site... 

Try to make some stats of 6-6 in all and in closed out situations....

Thanks again for your participation!

Yours 
Dude 
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I agree to much doubles in a game. I played before win 7 bagamonn and it was better, not so extremly with the doubles. It make not sense , no tactic works if the other have doubles in raw, but only my opinion.
Double 6 is one of 36 possible combinations i.e 2.8 %.
It is correct that dices have to looked upon independently, so that 3/4 can as well be realised as 4/3. Thus the probability of 3/4 is 2 of 36, i.e. 5.6 %.
it is controlled by the turkeys. they want you to watch the adverts. thats all
As i told here this is unreel playing because of too much dices,especially the turkish player are in advance with dices.But in generally this is the worsest topic here.
Also if you gave a critic here to the maker from this website your post is not written or you have the feeling that you loose more than before because of server.

So we accept that or we leave this site.
The idea from the site is good but the server has to be fixed!!!
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It amazes me how many people blame the "server" every time they lose.  I win a lot and lose a lot, and it is usually because I get careless and make a stupid move.  

Humans evolved to see patterns where none exist.  In the old days, if you saw the grass shaking, it might be the wind or it might be a lion.  If you run away when the grass moves, you'll live either way.  If you ignore it, it might be a lion and you get eaten.  So it pays to see the pattern and react, even if there's nothing to it.  

There are two possibilities here.  One is that the dice are truly random, and people think they see patterns when it suits their needs.  The other is that the flyordie people have a sophisticated algorithm to punish good players and reward bad ones for some nefarious commercial gain.  Personally, I'd go with the first one.  

Since we have the attention of a real flyordie person here, it would be simple for them to categorically deny that the dice are anything but random.  Of course some people will never believe it, but at least we would have it on the record.  

I've played many five major backgammon sites, and this is by far the best and most entertaining.  Thanks!
What do you mean "humans evolved to see patterns where none exist".  What a lame statement that CANNOT be proven.  Why didn't you just say humans have ability to reason.  Is this another one of your "sarge's" little nuggets of wisdom.  UNREAL.