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Back Gammon , not realy dice by chanc....!
Replies: 12   Pages: 1   Most recent reply posted by: nefrin (Oct 31, 2010 3:32 PM)
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Replies: 12   Pages: 1  
nefrin

Posts: 21
Registered: Sep, 2010

Back Gammon , not realy dice by chanc....! Posted: Oct 31, 2010 3:32 PM
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hi ,
I think there is a cheat in the programing " software" of back gammon , in fact the game dice in the way make the game more attractive than like a real game ,...
if you play it you will feel and see what i am talking about , the real game do not dice like this !


Battle Royale

Posts: 45
Registered: Jan, 2007

Re: Back Gammon , not realy dice by chanc....! Posted: Nov 16, 2010 4:35 PM
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this has been brought up before, it will be brought up again, nothin will change. Just dont play it cause its just gets really annoying. though most ppl are pretty much at the same level anyway so just think of what move he should do in a given situation and if u get it right its eh kind of like winning but obviously not at the same time. But what does work is if u use 1 user name, ride on the wave of luck and glory until that streak of bad luck hits, then change name for about a week then go back to the "lucky" user name and this will probabky work until u get to about 750+ points and at that stage the people with more points wont play u cause all they do is go into a rom an d say "ja ja ja" and the ppl below u all have like 253 points and just wanna game of 32. Hope this helps, hope it gets posted too, probabky wont though.

nefrin

Posts: 21
Registered: Sep, 2010

Re: Back Gammon , not realy dice by chanc....! Posted: Feb 10, 2014 4:17 PM
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I think you are right,...
& i think they are using a series of numbers already have been played before, and change them at some points
BeCause, it is really hard to produce that much of totally random numbers for this much of games.
It is really massive.

nefrin

Posts: 21
Registered: Sep, 2010

Re: Back Gammon , not realy dice by chanc....! Posted: Feb 23, 2014 6:16 AM
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Here it comes my last argument about statistics and probability, which i among many others believe that the game does not distribute dice totally randomly :
.
_1_ Some probabilities are not distributed well accordingly to a special situation.
Alike pairs in the end game, the beginnings, sole stone hit in more than 7 places away,....
.
_2_Distribution gets patchy , like repetition of dice and numbers.
.
_3_The need to have " SGF "for the games, So we can record our games.


nefrin

Posts: 21
Registered: Sep, 2010

Re: Back Gammon , not realy dice by chanc....! Posted: Feb 23, 2014 6:17 AM
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It is continued from :
http://forum.flyordie.com/thread.jsp?nav=false&forum=48&thread= 58657

nefrin

Posts: 21
Registered: Sep, 2010

Re: Back Gammon , not realy dice by chanc....! Posted: Feb 23, 2014 6:21 AM
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My Last Post on Math & Probability :
.
Despite you have asked me to continue the discussion elsewhere, hence i am not going to continue i am asking you Not to delete this my last post about "Math and Probability".
SO, please publish this post.
.
_1_ Independence issue :
@ Developer
You say the dice is independence, so if there were a 6 in first and second roll , then in the third its probability is still 1/6 to have another 1/6.
.
It is true that " Conditional Probability " applies just for
" Dependent " variables, and that Dice is " independent ". So not exactly you can use conditional probability,
But :
_1_A : think having three 6 in row is 1/27 (each 6 of two dice) and you have already rolled 1st, and you got a 6 so what is the probability of having another 6's ? You may say 1/9, Ok ,
then you make it done, it is all 6's.
So, now, what it was the probability of getting 6's ??? Still 1/27.
So you got a 1.27 chance.
.
and when this is repeated many times you may conclude maybe something is wrong with the dice !!!!
.
_1_B : its true with the real dice. Here there is not any real dice, it is just an algorithm which choose between supposedly random set of numbers, and redistribute them to assure they are random.
For Example : like if it gives first [ 1 3 2 4 1 6 5 2 3 4 6 5 ].
Then after the algorithm we have [ 3 1 2 6 5 4 2 4 5 6 1 3 ].
SO , if you got a double 3 in a row , just not like real dice, that it affects the all set.
.
_1_C : Poisson probability :
< http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution >.
It says like an event happens 3 times per minute, what would be the probability of all three same event happens in 30 seconds ?
like if you expect 3 rolls of 6 / in 1 min what would it
be to have them all in 20 sec ???
.
_2_ Distribution & sample size issue :
@ Developer :
_2_A : Sample size of " 100 " was an example, for its simplicity and easy talking of the number "100" .
But still you can calculate its odds.
.
_2_B : Every year Lots of papers published on social sciences & medicine have the sample sizes between 100 and 1000 cases.
And that size can gives P value of 0.05 which means, by the 95% possibly you hypothesis is true.
and by the sample size of 1534 and margin of error of 2.5%, you can conclude with 95% confidence that your hypothesis is true for 1000000 people....
take a look at these sites :
< http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm
< http://www.sciencebuddies.org/science-fair-projects/project_ide as/Soc_participants.shtml >
.
the sample sizes of millions are fine for testing airspace, odd mathematics, physics where there should be " PRECISE " calculations.
_2_C By 2x i meant : 2 sigma, Or better to say placing an even over 2 sigma of normal distribution.
.
_2_D you said :
" The rolls don't have to be evenly distributed over 20-30 rolls. Real dice rolls won't be either."
AND also one does not expect dice to aggregate, this way.
when numbers are randomly chosen from bigger group of numbers and then you continue to do so you may have " FUNDER EFFECT ".
In this case some dice may get enriched by special numbers.
this is
Like number " 3 " in a set of 4 roll , and then " 1" or maybe 2 in another set.
Please take a look at this :
< http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Founder_effect >.
.
_2_E : Lets give an explanation here :
We have some factors :
Number of " types " or " kinds " and their probability.
Size of the set.
Size of the sample.
Like with dice; Sets of 5 rolls of double dice, ( 1-3,2-4 etc ) and sample size 1000 rolls and 200 set.
Well, based on distribution the way things may appear " Random " may differ , It can happen if the Variability of dice in sets gets lower than normal and still in the whole sample it seems normal.
Just like the difference of a " Harsh NOISE " and " FINE NOISE ".
.
In Large scale both seem to be randomized but they are not equal to each other.
.
_3_If my argument are not right then why don't you provide players with SGF records ???
.
With best regards I hope you fine a better way do dice the games.
Thank you for your patience and understanding.
Nefrin.

FlyOrDie

Posts: 481
Registered: Nov, 2001

Re: Back Gammon , not realy dice by chanc....! Posted: Feb 27, 2014 9:05 AM
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Something to read for you:

http://www.backgammoned.net/backgammon-articles/how-random-are- the-dice-used-in-online-backgammon.html
http://www.paulspages.co.uk/bgvaults/tips/dicerolls.php

nefrin

Posts: 21
Registered: Sep, 2010

Re: Back Gammon , not realy dice by chanc....! Posted: Feb 27, 2014 1:14 PM
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Thank you ,
I'm keeping reading and gathering.
i will post later after i could sum up things.

nefrin

Posts: 21
Registered: Sep, 2010

Re: Back Gammon , not realy dice by chanc....! Posted: Feb 27, 2014 1:41 PM
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hmmm ,
i read that first one. are you proposing you are using GNU ???

Rumple

Posts: 1
Registered: Feb, 2010

Re: Back Gammon , not realy dice by chanc....! Posted: Sep 4, 2014 9:15 PM
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There is no way it is random, I have played many games and there are situations when I think they only way I can lose is if ?? dice roll, and what happens they roll. This has happended on many occasions so is not isolated. It seems that sometimes the game pre-determines who is going to win. it is correct when you get really bad losing streaks i.e is was 400 rated the other day and I am now 60, I can be unlucky but that is madness. The amount of times Ihave seen doubles come out at the end of the game several in a row to lose just puts me off playing. So goodbye fly or die backgammon.

RUBMIZ

Posts: 2
Registered: Apr, 2014

Re: Back Gammon , not realy dice by chanc....! Posted: Oct 3, 2014 5:33 PM
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I AGREE WITH YOU, DID YOU, I WAS ON THE 400 S AND I HAVE LOST ABOUT 20 STREIGHT GAMES, I AM TIRE OF THIS SITE, DO YOU NOW

Robert david

Posts: 45
Registered: Apr, 2012

Re: Back Gammon , not realy dice by chanc....! Posted: Oct 6, 2014 10:51 PM
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Sure the dice will always do you in, thats why one always loses in the long run. Pay up dont cry. !

selk

Posts: 2
Registered: Jan, 2006

Re: Back Gammon , not realy dice by chanc....! Posted: Dec 21, 2014 9:04 AM
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Agree,not a fair game at all!

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