Registered: Sep, 2010
Feb 19, 2014 10:13 PM
@ Flyordie :
of course by coins it happens to see 5 times tail in a row , it is because there are only two options :
1 __ Head or tail, and each has 1/2 of probability and in a row you may have 1/2^5 = 1/32 , which in 100 place ( to have a such a set in 100 throw makes it highly possible.
BUT even 1/130 is not likely to happen many times, which i feel i does on this site.
( Thinking of 60 rolls of dice, 6 set of pairs [1-1, 2-2,...], and 1/6 their probability ---> 1/36*1/36*1/36*60*6 = 1/130 ).
2__ There also other pairs happen frequently / pair of pairs :
( 60 rolls, 1/18*1/18 for each pair, 15 special pairs )
1 time of a special pair : 1/18 * 1/18 * 60 = 60 / 324.
2 times happens : [1/18^2]*30
N times : [1/18^2] * 60 * N
N times for any pair : [1/18^2] * 60 * N * 15.
& for triple of the pairs : [ 1/18 ^3] * 60 * N * 15.
Of course it seems legitimate to have such pairs in a game ,
But please follow to num 3 :
3__ Supposedly , the site generates Lots of " Random " numbers based on a " Randomness Extractor " , using some entropy or something, giving a " Uniform distribution (discrete) " ...
and Bla, Bla, Bla :
But still they are things remaining :
They way you distribute dice got some problems, they are patchy or granulated.
I mean :
there is normal to witness fluctuation in random numbers, but the way this happens is different, the number and fluctuations are inevitable but the greater they get the bigger sample you need to have an even " uniform distribution " ,
< alike of comparing a harsh noise to fair noise, with harsher noise you have greater wave legnts> ,
In the Game with real dice It is much finer and more even that of this site , So numbers are distributed better, and gameplay is much more enjoy-full.
Moreover IN SMALL SAMPLE NUMBERS it is a wast difference BUT STILL IN LARG SCALE SAMPLES you loose to see the difference.
So, not being enough to examine large scale samples of the site, one also should examine the fluctuations.
< like comparing sand to dust from a mile a way versus microscope !!!>
I think this why lots of times Dice sets get packed :
Fo example please compare these 2 sets :
[ 2-2, 2-1, 3-5, 6-6, 1-1 ] & [ 2-1, 2-3, 6-1, 1-5, 2-6 ].
as you see taking any pair as a special one [ 1-6 & not 6-1] each set has the same probability in 5 roll, but the first one is kind of odd in real game play.
ALL i mean is total randomness in the whole site is not enough :
A. Hence any game should be fitted and adjusted even.
B. The numbers doesn't get clumped.s
C. & that they are ways to hide inside these fluctuations, like hitting a sole stone if needed.
But if there was a way to get the frequencies of hit a sole stone "Accordingly to a Situation " then we could see what really is going on.
With best Regards.