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Fixed dice
Replies: 96   Pages: 7   Most recent reply posted by: OPERATOR (Feb 23, 2012 8:03 AM)
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Replies: 96   Pages: 7   [ Go: « 1 ... 2 3 4 5 6 7 » ]
fstal86

Posts: 22
Registered: Aug, 2011

Re: Posted: Jun 21, 2014 2:43 PM
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"We now know that the dice throw is not random."

Know? As in, you can prove it with data?

"However, having said all these it would be more pleasing experience for very many of us playing here if the frequency of the highly improbable events will happen less frequently and the win and lose rates are not regulated. Meaning one can’t win 7 or 8 successive games or vice versa."

In other words, you want it NOT to be random? Streaks of 7 and 8 are supposed to happen occasionally with randomness. If they can't happen, then you don't have randomness, you have a game rigged not to have streaks. Is that what you want?

"Seems neither side will agree on anything."

Look, the "it's rigged" side might be right, I haven't even played backgammon on here. But all I see are bold claims with zero data/numbers to back it up, and so my first reaction is skepticism. I don't think the people saying it's rigged understand probability or statistics.

D200

Posts: 6
Registered: Mar, 2012

Re: "Fixed dice" Posted: Jun 22, 2014 11:07 PM
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fstal86 you write as if you are a Flyordie employee or spokesperson. It seems that you are not bothered with what all the others are experiencing with the game and honestly I can't see your point of defending so boldly.

Can you yourself prove with data that the dice throw is random? We will never know unless Flyordie reveals this information.

There was a question above
''''@ Dear Flyordie,
at the time i was reading on the site you provide me and that it is really useful . So let me ask you if which way you are using to generate random numbers ?????''''
the question was never addressed by Flyordie. Will it ever be addressed??

Let's have a look at the examples below to illustrate how the same game can be different.

a) Backgammon on my mobile telephone. I see my winning chances are greater. If I was to lose most games I would delete the app, leave negative feedback and would not bother with it again and move on to another. The app developer would like to sell the app and the source code is written accordingly.

b) Strip backgammon. Having downloaded one of these some while back I also see that the player is given favorable dice throw to enjoy the strip backgammon. It wouldn't be strip backgammon otherwise.

c) Hoyle Backgammon. Playing against your pc where the game becomes more challenging but not as playing against a human.

d) Flyordie experience. I feels it is much more advanced version of Hoyle game. I strongly believe that the dice throw is not random and the games are rigged in order to keep the players addicted to the game and to the web site. The more players means the more advertising or more revenue.

As I said above the source codes can be written in any way one wishes depending on one's motive or purpose. Although circumstantial evidence but good enough to believe having played several thousand games and seen many players sharing the same experience.

We may not be good script writers and it may look as if we are contradicting ourselves but we are trying to mean and point to the same that makes us unhappy playing backgammon here for the reasons described.
Judging by the length of this thread and the other threads on this subject it is not in Flyordie's best interest to change the game play.

fstal86

Posts: 22
Registered: Aug, 2011

Re: "Fixed dice" Posted: Jun 23, 2014 1:13 PM
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I'm the farthest thing from a FoD spokesperson. I'm just picking apart bad arguments. You could say I'm a spokesperson for math and reasoning (not that I'm the best representative).

"As I said above the source codes can be written in any way one wishes depending on one's motive or purpose"

Yes, a FoD programmer *can* make it non-random. Just like if you own a kitchen knife, you *can* stab someone if you want to. That doesn't mean you're guilty of stabbing someone. Your owning a knife only infinitesimally increases the probability that you stabbed someone, so it's not even worth mentioning in an argument. Likewise, your quote doesn't add anything to your argument.

"Can you yourself prove with data that the dice throw is random? We will never know unless Flyordie reveals this information."

Since I've never played FoD Backgammon, I've never collected any data. But as I've offered a few times in this thread, if anyone has data they want to share with me, I can analyze it. If no one has data, well then, their beliefs aren't rational.

When you play your games, type in a notepad file the result of each roll. Also when it's a critical situation, record whether the roll helps you or hurts you, along with how many rolls would have helped you.

That's what I would do if I played often and were suspicious.

fstal86

Posts: 22
Registered: Aug, 2011

Re: "Fixed dice" Posted: Jun 23, 2014 1:48 PM
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Forgot to address:

"Flyordie experience. I feels it is much more advanced version of Hoyle game. I strongly believe that the dice throw is not random and the games are rigged in order to keep the players addicted to the game and to the web site."

If that's the case, they're doing a bad job of it, no? Because you're all complaining.

Randomness keeps it addicting enough btw. That's why weak players are still willing to play for money. Randomness disguises just how big their long-run disadvantage is to a superior player. Same in poker. If not for variance, there would be hardly any weak players playing for money. How many bad Chess players are willing to bet with a stranger on a Chess match?

Randomness is also addicting enough to make slots players donate their retirement savings to the machines.

low bass

Posts: 1
Registered: Nov, 2012

Re: Posted: Aug 3, 2014 4:27 AM
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In my case, I believe the dice are rigged against me. Playable doubles are common for my opponents, and rare for me. I often get double sixes while I am on the bar, the six point blocked. This is frustrating. I blieve I am a faily good player, but this site is somehow unfair. How do I get the server to show some mercy?

luizsp4

Posts: 2
Registered: Feb, 2012

Re: "Fixed dice" Posted: Aug 14, 2014 4:30 PM
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My rate was 862. Then I started to lose, lose, and lose. 5 days after 862, my rate went down to ZERO!!!! I can't say I'm a bad player... I really don't beleive that dices are ramdom.

D200

Posts: 6
Registered: Mar, 2012

Re: "Fixed dice" Posted: Nov 18, 2014 11:09 PM
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I have lost 5 consecutive games in similar fashion tonight. The dice favoured my opponents and gave them enough doubles that there was no way of winning the games. Most unlikely positions and they got the perfect dice to beat me.
It was as if a hidden hand controlled the game and hit the most unlikely single stones.
If any of you find a better backgammon web site please let me know.

ThUnDeR

Posts: 671
Registered: May, 2010

Re: "Fixed dice" Posted: Nov 19, 2014 3:47 PM
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>It was as if a hidden hand controlled the game and hit the most unlikely single stones.

... Yes. This will be added to OP's list of favourite comments.

mlh55

Posts: 5
Registered: Apr, 2013

Re: "Fixed dice" Posted: Nov 28, 2014 10:12 AM
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There is not much point in arguing this without evidence - one side saying its fixed and the other denying it - but all said in a vacuum.

Playing for quite a while now it seemed to me that some of what happened in terms of rolls seemed to be incredible. But I thought it could be false impressions. So I decided to start recording all rolls. I now have a database in a spreadsheet of over 300 hundred games and more than 10000 rolls.

The main thing I wanted to look at was doubles 1/1, 2/2 etc since they seem to unduly influence results.

In the real world with actual physical die we should, statistically have doubles being rolled 16.67% of the time - 1 in 6. But (according to my data) we have doubles being rolled 20.3% of the time - a little over 1 in 5. Now that doesn't seem like much of a difference but one extra double per game would be enough in most cases to salvage the play of even the most incompetent of players.

My impression is that the system has some mechanism such that it often determines who will win even before battle commences - I call this the designated winner. IF the designated winner gets a double at the appropriate times along with one or two helpful rolls they get a huge advantage.

Given the unlikely preponderance of doubles in the game, it seems to be very likely that this is what happens. Why is a different issue.

I've also been able to demonstrate to my satisfaction from the data collected that there is some interference in the results when the designated loser is caught on the bar. For example,statistically, if you are trying to come back on when there is one spot open, you should achieve that after two rolls 50% of the time. But in FlyOrDie, its much worse than that.

So I think I have the data that proves to my mind that the system is designed to achieve a pre-determined outcome in many games. But of coarse the OPERATOR will continue to dispute this and there's not much that can be done about that.

Still I urge other players to start recording the rolls they get and checking if they get similar results to mine. In the end if we are getting doubles every 5 rolls instead of every 6, its either programmed to do that or its a monumental programming error.

FlyOrDie

Posts: 457
Registered: Nov, 2001

Re: "Fixed dice" Posted: Nov 28, 2014 1:00 PM
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Just one question: what would be the point of such a system?
Would you implement such a system if you were a backgammon game site operator?

mlh55

Posts: 5
Registered: Apr, 2013

Re: Posted: Nov 29, 2014 11:03 PM
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I can think of a couple of reasons why someone might want to implement such a system. Others in this thread have already alluded to a possible commercial interest in tilting the play one way or the other.
As a programmer myself I could envisage others just doing it because it can be done and seeing how much they can get away with.
I don't know exactly why it is being done but that it is being done seems to me to be unassailable. Anyone who plays here for even a short while will be aware of the jaw-dropping rolls that change a game. I play a little game within a game, trying to predict the next throw when games get to their crucial phases. Its disconcerting how often it can be predicted.

Just one other point that I neglected to mention earlier. From my statistics of past throws, I have found that 6/6 comes up almost 4% of the time when statistically it should be slightly less than 3% of the time. This only makes sense when you realise that 6/6 is one of the best ways to help a struggling designated winner.

emc_exp2

Posts: 5
Registered: Jul, 2012

Re: Posted: Nov 30, 2014 12:05 AM
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I think that 10,000 rolls is not enough for a true statisic. I've seen video poker simulations for a 100% payback machine that showed a need for over 40,000 plays to get back to even money.

DEVELOPER

Posts: 513
Registered: Sep, 2004

Re: "Fixed dice" Posted: Dec 1, 2014 8:28 AM
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There are two different things that you who complain are mixing up continuously:

1. The random generator is not truly random. Yes, it's a pseudorandom generator that from a statistical point of view fulfills the requirements for throwing a dice. There is a plenty of mathematical analyses on pseudorandom generators out there so we won't go into any debate based on psychologically distorted human feelings.

2. We fix the dice in favor of your OPPONENT. Please note: it's ALWAYS the opponent who is favored. To create such a system would be:
- totally impossible (it's ALWAYS the OPPONENT, remember?)
- totally insane
- totally waste of time

Also: If the random number generator was biased and did not fulfill the statistical criteria for throwing a dice, that would be still perfectly OK, because ALL players throw the SAME dice, so chances would be equal for both playing parties.

mlh55

Posts: 5
Registered: Apr, 2013

Re: "Fixed dice" Posted: Dec 2, 2014 12:44 AM
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"We fix the dice in favor of your OPPONENT. "

At no time did I make that assertion. Indeed there have been more than one occasions when I have apologised to or commiserated with opponents for the embarrassingly and unbelievably good rolls I've received in this or that game. I've talked about the system regularly selecting a designated winner and clearly I've often been that designated winner and well as the designated loser.

" that would be still perfectly OK, because ALL players throw the SAME dice"

Not really. That's true if there was no predetermination. But if, as seems likely, the deviation from standard chance is due to the need to help struggling players, then the preponderance of doubles and especially 6/6 doesn't even out for all players all the time.


DEVELOPER

Posts: 513
Registered: Sep, 2004

Re: "Fixed dice" Posted: Dec 2, 2014 12:47 PM
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Re: "the preponderance of doubles and especially 6/6 doesn't even out for all players all the time."

What does this even mean? "all the time"??? No, it doesn't even out "all the time". It will even out in the long run. That's what luck games are about. Sometimes luck is on your side, sometimes not. We do not "designate" any winner. But I know who does, her name is Fortuna.

Also, you recorded your games and now you imply that's the case "for all players". How do you know?

We can implement a system where you get all possible rolls like a stack of cards. You can roll (play out) whichever card you want. That system would be even "for all players all the time". It shouldn't be called Backgammon, but who cares, if you want to play by such rules.

Anyway, I will post analysis of the recent Backgammon tournament, so you can see for yourself how we fix the dice.

Replies: 96   Pages: 7   [ Go: « 1 ... 2 3 4 5 6 7 » ]
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